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衰退漸進!
uSMART盈立智投 04-12 20:05

富國銀行股票策略主管Chris Harvey表示,美國股市今年的反彈將是短暫的,經濟形勢惡化可能會導致市場在未來幾個月下跌。

Harvey預計,標準普爾500指數將在未來三到六個月出現10%的回調。這將使標普500回落到3700點左右,接近去年11月的低點。但富國銀行維持其年終目標價4200點不變,較週一收盤價高出約2%。

Harvey表示,“在我們看來,股市下行將受到經濟狀況惡化的驅動,經濟狀況惡化的作用包括:激進的貨幣政策;銀行危機引發的潛在資本/流動性問題;消費者越來越依賴信貸來維持支出。”

經濟衰退

Harvey表示,該公司在硅谷銀行上月倒閉前預估的"經濟低迷",已在今年下半年走向全面衰退。他補充稱,收益率曲線反轉和消費者對信貸的依賴程度上升,導致該公司對股市的看法逆轉。

美國股市在2023年第一季度基本未受影響,儘管投資者面臨日益加劇的衰退擔憂、盈利暴跌的警告以及前所未有的銀行危機。

富國銀行的數據顯示,標普500指數今年以來上漲了約7%,主要受美國國債收益率下降和外界認爲美聯儲將下調利率的推動。

但近期的漲勢已開始失去動能,因投資者在等待不明朗的財報季,且對金融體系的擔憂揮之不去。

Harvey表示,“如果我們假設美聯儲的緊縮週期在3月結束(這仍然是拋硬幣),短期的寬慰性反彈似乎已經反映在股市上。”“通常情況下,市場會在三個月內持續上漲;然而,這種比較可能並不公平,因爲緊縮週期可能還沒有結束,預計利潤率的壓縮將超過美聯儲的轉向。”

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