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《大行報告》富瑞下調贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)及天齊鋰業(09696.HK)目標價 維持「買入」評級
富瑞發表研究報告指,今年首季度中國鋰價調整超出預期,除補貼削減的預期影響外,市場需求亦受到與新能源汽車及內燃機汽車價格戰相關觀望態度所影響。 但該行預計,汽車行業價格戰將在短期內緩和,有助於需求自第二季開始復甦,鋰價亦將隨著次季需求回升而反彈,維持全年需求展望。富瑞下調2023至2025年鋰價預測至32.4萬、12萬及16萬元人民幣,仍然預計今年中期鋰價會出現反彈;計及成本上漲及高成本供應增加,將長期價格預測上調至每噸15萬元人民幣。 個股方面,富瑞指出,贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)預期今年度碳酸鋰當量產量將增至11萬至13萬噸,同時估計Cauchari-Olaroz的產能提升將延遲至第二季。另一方面,天齊鋰業(09696.HK)公布五年戰略計劃,目標至2027年鋰化工產品產能可達到約30萬噸。 富瑞表示並不太擔心天齊的資本開支,但基於最新鋰價預測,將贛鋒及天齊今年盈利預測分別下調11%及19%,目標價分別由83.19元及82元,下降至79.65及78元,評級維持「買入」。
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