美股不香了?
由於利率上升以及對美國經濟衰退的擔憂,美國基金經理正在增加對海外股市的投資。數據提供商EPFR的數據顯示,今年迄今爲止,美國股票基金已有340億美元資金流出。相比之下,歐洲股票基金有100億美元的資金流入,新興市場股票基金則有340億美元的資金流入。
自2008年金融危機以來,美股的表現遠遠好於其他大多數發達國家和新興市場,但這一趨勢從去年開始逆轉。歐洲斯託克600指數的回報率已經連續四個季度高於標普500指數,這是自2008年以來持續最長的時間。歐洲股市在去年也出現下跌,但跌幅小於美股的跌幅。
美股仍是全球最大的股市,標普500指數的總市值爲34萬億美元,而歐洲斯託克600指數的總市值略低於10萬億歐元。儘管如此,宏觀經濟因素和市場結構的差異正在推動投資者向歐洲股市的轉向。
美股在過去十年間的主導地位是由大型科技公司的鉅額收益所推動的。隨着利率上升降低了長期增長型資產的相對吸引力,這些大型科技公司受到的打擊尤其嚴重。相比之下,歐洲股市中金融服務和大宗商品等行業的權重更大,而這些行業受高利率影響較小。此外,過去的這個溫暖的冬季令歐洲經濟展現出比大多數經濟學家預期更好的韌性。
不少資產管理公司已經意識到,有必要進行多元化投資。管理規模達1.3萬億美元、以積極管理著稱的T Rowe Price的首席執行官Rob Sharps表示:“如果你看看我們資產管理的分佈,你會發現,我們很大程度上集中在活躍的美股領域。”但他還補充稱:“這是我們的招牌,但這也是正在流失份額的一個市場。”
Rob Sharps稱,T Rowe Price正努力提升其在國際固定收益和全球股票市場方面的能力。他表示:“儘管我們在活躍的美股市場方面的能力確實衆所周知,但我希望有機會在其他資產類別上實現增長。”
貝萊德投資研究所也認爲,預計未來幾十年,美股的表現將遜於新興市場、歐洲和中國股市。此外,管理者1430億美元資產的PineBridge Investments在其最新戰略報告中表示,該公司對“整體美股市場採取了更爲謹慎的立場,尤其是考慮到目前的估值過高,加上信貸即將收緊、銀行將規避風險、以及美聯儲退出對債券市場的支持。”PineBridge Investments對包括中國和印度在內的新興市場持更爲積極的立場。
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