牛市假象?
今年美國基準股指標普500指數2.36萬億美元的漲幅中,僅20只股票就佔了近90%,因爲銀行業的不穩定降低了利率預期,從而增加了大型科技公司的吸引力。
在漲幅最大的股票中,芯片製造商英偉達(NVDA.US)的股價今年迄今上漲了83%,Facebook母公司Meta(META.US)上漲76%,賽富時(CRM.US)上漲42%,突顯出這個全球最具影響力的股市的高度集中。
2023年,這三隻股票和標普500指數中其他17只表現最好的股票的市值增加了2.05萬億美元。在過去三個月里,僅蘋果(AAPL.US)的估值就飆升了近6000億美元,漲幅達30%。
然而,根據私募股權公司阿波羅全球管理的數據,該指數其他成分股的市值同期僅增長了3200億美元。2023年迄今,標普500指數整體累計上漲近7%。
瑞銀表示,剔除大型成長型股票的漲幅,標普500指數在2023年前三個月僅上漲1.4%。
摩根大通交易員Jack Atherton表示:“鑑於市場目前的形勢,人們正在尋找更爲安全和舒適的環境,而大型科技公司爲他們提供了這些便利。”該交易員對此還比喻道,“每當美聯儲剎車,就會有人衝破擋風玻璃”,而大型科技公司似乎“戴着一套八點式安全帶”。
2022年,由於借貸成本的上升,美國科技公司尤其受到衝擊,科技股爲主的納斯達克綜合指數由於科技公司未來現金流的現值下降,從歷史高點暴跌了三分之一。
雖然美聯儲仍計劃在2023年繼續加息,但部分投資者已經開始預期,硅谷銀行3月份倒閉的影響將收緊貸款標準,並使經濟活動放緩到足以證明沒有必要進一步大幅加息的程度。
銀行業動盪已經降低了投資者對加息50個基點的預期,而對於美聯儲在5月初的下次會議上加息25個基點至5-5.25%的目標區間,還是維持利率不變,市場仍存在分歧。一個月前,在硅谷銀行破產之前,投資者一度預計,利率將在9月份達到5.5%左右的峯值。
加息預期降溫也讓科技股成爲了主要受益者之一。野村分析師Charlie McElligott表示,許多在2022年遭受重創、但在美國股指中佔主導地位的股票,如今“在劇烈的利率重置後,股價持續飆升”。
不過,依然高企的通脹意味着刺激科技股在2021年創下歷史新高的零利率環境不太可能在短期內再次出現,而且該行業剛剛開始的反彈可能已經在減弱。美國銀行的分析師指出,在截至3月31日的五個交易日內,科技股出現了六週來的首次資金外流。
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