美國銀行擠兌潮尚未了！
據巴克萊的數據，資金涌入最安全的貨幣市場共同基金的浪潮纔剛剛開始，在接下來一年還將有多達1.5萬億美元的資金進入這一領域。自上月人們對銀行業危機的擔憂爆發以來，只投資於國庫券和回購協議等幾乎沒有信用風險的證券的純政府貨幣基金已經瘋狂膨脹。巴克萊表示，隨着投資者尋求更高收益率和更安全的投資，資金繼續從銀行流出，並從購買高風險債券的優質基金流出，只會進一步推動這一趨勢。
巴克萊貨幣市場策略師Joseph Abate在給客戶的報告中寫道：“我們預計明年貨幣基金結餘將大幅增加。儘管對更廣泛的銀行償付能力的擔憂似乎正在消退，但它們似乎已經引起了存款的注意。機構投資者已經注意到，他們承擔無擔保銀行風險，將銀行存款保持在25萬美元的保險上限以上，卻沒有得到同樣多的補償。”
由於對銀行業的擔憂令全球市場不安，同時誘人的利率吸引着投資者，所有貨幣市場基金的資金量上月攀升至新高。根據美國投資公司協會(Investment Company Institute)的數據，貨幣基金的現金儲備在三週內增加了約3040億美元，截至3月29日，總資產達到5.2萬億美元。
投資者除了擔心在硅谷銀行和另外兩家地區性銀行倒閉後出現進一步的擠兌，還因爲這些利率的上升落後於貨幣基金的收益率，還從存款賬戶中撤出資金。貨幣基金更好地跟上了美聯儲自沃爾克時代以來最激進的加息週期。紐約聯儲的研究人員本週在一篇博客文章中量化了這種利率差異及其對資金流動的影響。
投資於政府債券的貨幣基金青睞的一個潛在投資是美聯儲的逆回購工具。但新資金是否大部分會流向逆回購工具，將取決於有吸引力的替代投資方案的供應。上週逆回購工具的資金規模跳升至2.375萬億美元，爲今年以來最高，不過自那以來已小幅回落。
Abate寫道：“對貨幣基金流入的預測顯示，未來大量資金將流入美聯儲的逆回購工具。但美聯儲的計劃中究竟有多少資金，取決於票據和民間部門回購等替代方案的可用性，以及基金經理延長其投資組合加權平均久期的意願。然而，逆回購工具餘額的路徑是不確定的，使用的波動可能會產生其他問題。”
Abate表示：“量化緊縮(QT)期間美聯儲逆回購工具使用的時斷時續波動是由外生因素引起的——比如另類資產的供應和優質基金改革的影響——可能會通過隔夜利率反映出來。反過來，這些利率可能會暫時上下波動，‘自我糾正’逆回購工具造成的準備金短缺。”
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