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市場風聲鶴唳,美國商業地產貸款會引發銀行業危機嗎?

目前,包括美國銀行、高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、瑞信等華爾街大行齊齊發出警告,認爲美國商業地產可能是繼銀行業危機後下一個要暴雷的行業。未來兩年到期的近萬億美元債務,小銀行跟隨大銀行收緊貸款敞口的可能性,都加劇了商業地產的壓力。

對此,天風證券發表研報表示,截至2022年底,美國商業地產的抵押貸款規模爲3.6萬億美元,遠低於住宅抵押貸款的規模13.4萬億美元,也不及次貸危機期間美國住宅抵押貸款規模的三分之一。

美國商業地產抵押貸款主要由商業銀行持有(65%),保險公司持有份額爲15%,MBS發行機構(主要爲房利美和房地美)持有13.5%。儘管美國商業銀行中商業地產貸款規模在疫情後超越了住宅抵押貸款規模,接近2.9萬億美元,但由於美國銀行資產規模的膨脹,兩者佔銀行資產比反而從2006年高位的15%和19.5%下降至近期的12.5%和10.9%。

商業地產抵押貸款證券(CMBS)從次貸危機期間規模佔GDP的比例不到6%,小幅上升至6%。但結構上卻由當年大部分爲非政府機構發行,到如今非政府機構發行比例跌落至2%。

因而天風證券認爲該領域出現複雜衍生品導致的銀行流動性危機概率較低。從資產質量的惡化來看,風險較大的主要是商業辦公樓的地產貸款,特別是科技行業較爲活躍的地區。

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