“財報殺”將到?
華爾街知名美股“空頭”、摩根士丹利策略師邁克爾•威爾遜(Michael Wilson)表示,銀行業的動盪導致盈利指引看起來過高,使樂觀的股市面臨大幅下跌的風險。Wilson週一在一份報告中寫道:"鑑於過去幾周發生的事件,我們認爲指引看起來越來越不現實。"
威爾遜在去年的機構投資者調查中排名第一,因爲他正確預測了股市的拋售。威爾遜指出,這在一定程度上是由於本月股市和債市走勢的背離。在一系列美國地區性銀行倒閉後,投資者消化了潛在衰退的影響,導致債券波動率飆升,而股市則因押注政策制定者將進行幹預危機而收復失地。標普500指數有望連續第二個季度上漲。
現在市場焦點轉向4月中旬開始的第一季度財報季。Wilson稱,今年迄今爲止的盈利預期下滑幅度與前兩個季度持平,表明業績尚未見底。他補充稱,鑑於市場仍對下半年利潤將大幅回升的預期,通脹上升對利潤率的威脅仍"未得到充分認識"。

此外,摩根大通策略師們還表示,第一季度可能是今年股市的“高點”,他們預計在美聯儲發出降息信號之前,“股市風險回報不會出現根本性改善”。此外,Mislav Matejka領導的團隊稱,去年債券和股市走勢方向一致,這是不尋常的現象,今年衰退概率上升可能會再次扭轉這種關係。
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