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美聯儲利率決議本週來襲,投資者還關注這些數據
uSMART盈立智投 03-20 15:48

來源:Wind

在銀行困境引發市場波動後,投資者本週將目光焦點轉向美聯儲利率決議。

美東時間3月22日14:00,美聯儲將公佈利率決議和經濟預期摘要,隨後美聯儲主席鮑威爾召開貨幣政策新聞發佈會。

CME FedWatch 工具的定價顯示,目前市場對美聯儲此次會議上加息25個基點的預測概率爲62%,不加息的預測概率爲38%。超過一半的經濟學家預計下週的FOMC會議上會有不同意見,這將打破FOMC基本一致的投票。

一些分析認爲,美聯儲持續激進加息是導致硅谷銀行倒閉的重要誘因,因此美聯儲下週可能放緩或停止加息,甚至降息。

穆迪分析(Moody ‘s Analytics)首席經濟學家贊迪(Mark Zandi)表示,他預計本週美聯儲可能會發出加息週期暫時結束的信號。

贊迪並未預計美國經濟會出現衰退,他認爲仍有可能實現軟着陸。他預計美聯儲不會轉而降息,因爲對抗通脹的鬥爭尚未結束。贊迪預計美國第一季度經濟增長率爲1%至2%。他說:“但未來幾個季度可能是零到1%,甚至可能出現負增長,這取決於時機。”

如今外界將關注美聯儲經濟展望及政策路徑的更多線索。結束了有關半年度貨幣政策報告聽證會後,鮑威爾將在發佈會上如何評價硅谷銀行事件影響和美國經濟前景將成爲未來一週重大風險事件。

數據方面,2月耐用品訂單月率和3月PMI初值值得關注,這將體現近期美國經濟的活力程度。此外,2月新屋銷售、成屋銷售月率、上週初請失業金人數、芝加哥聯儲全國活動指數等指標也值得留意。

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