美國通脹超預期；硅谷銀行拯救美股
本文來自格隆匯專欄：洪灝 作者：洪灝
昨夜，美國核心通脹環比加速，但整體符合預期。硅谷銀行破產得到了妥善處理，甚至有消息稱硅谷銀行已經重新開門營業，並且客似雲來。美股為之一振，三大指數齊升。市場現在下注美聯儲下週加息25個點，甚至停止加息。野村最激進，甚至預測美聯儲將開始降息。其實是市場利用硅谷銀行破產來綁架美聯儲貨幣政策，畢竟，美聯儲的貨幣政策的第三個隱含目標是維持金融系統穩定。之前，我們在連續三篇文章裏《洪灝 | 硅谷銀行——最安全的地方才最危險》歷過08年的分析員，不知道當年華爾街失業率50%，花街白領還要忍着失業之痛去各大銀行排隊擠提，生怕去晚了要遭遇工作和存款齊丟的狼狽之狀。現在硅谷銀行破產前，還把年終獎先發了，當真是年度最佳僱主。美聯儲進入加息週期後，美國通脹得到控制了嗎？那要看你看什麼指標。表明上，通脹和核心通脹的整體水平繼續緩慢下行，但是環比加速。同時，一月的PCE個人消費通脹超預期並環比加速。市場似乎忘了，這個數據才是美聯儲關注的、最重要的通脹數據。而亞特蘭大聯儲的“黏性通脹率”繼續大幅走高，但“非黏性通脹”，也就是價格容易變化的商品的通脹率大幅走低，使整體通脹水平略降（如圖）不知道決定人們生活成本負擔的是哪一類通脹？還是市場共識裝聾作啞。
美國黏性通脹大幅上升
如果之前市場共識認為硅谷銀行破產是系統性風險，美聯儲要降息相救，那麼現在硅谷重新營業應該讓硅谷下週不成為決定美聯儲利率的因子。但如果硅谷系統性風險沒有解除，那麼市場昨夜不應該暴升相慶。這兩種推演，邏輯上不能自洽。但是，現在連新債王Gundlach都認為美聯儲不應該繼續加息了。如果説，鮑叔“沃爾克之鷹”上身，那麼美國現在的實際利率其實還是負的。70年代的滯升時期，美聯儲加息都是加到美國實際利率轉正方止。2003-08年，2014、2018年也是如此。這也是為什麼，美聯儲每次加息，都加出來危機。這次會不一樣嗎？P.S. — 市場傳高盛在建議硅谷銀行賣股票融資搞爆了硅谷銀行之後，現在又準備出價買硅谷銀行的債券組合。真是婚禮殯葬一條龍服務。
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