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未来数月经济环境难大改善,港美市场忧虑重重双双下挫
uSMART盈立智投 03-10 17:59

Jaco 袁永傑/uSMART投資顧問總監畢業於諾桑比亞大學,主修國際商業管理擁有10年港股、美股研究及操作經驗,擅長利用各種分析方式和宏觀經濟環境分析對股票及市場作出預測

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美國昨日公佈的上週首領失業救濟金人數升至21.1萬,加上聯儲局最新《褐皮書》指未來數月經濟環境難大幅改善,市場在開市早段對美聯儲激進加息稍爲放下戒心,不過及後美國硅谷銀行大規模融資觸發市場對經濟衰退擔憂及避險情緒快速上升,道指曾一度下跌607點,收市跌543點,報32254點;標指跌73點,報3918點;納指跌237點,報11338點。除了經濟數據及美聯儲取態對市場信心造成打擊外,還有拜登政府週四公佈新預算案,提出向富豪、富裕投資者及企業加稅的建議,尋求在10年內削減3萬億美元赤字。美國硅谷銀行母企SVB Financial週四突然宣佈融資計劃,並迅速擴大規模至22.5億美元,以抵銷拋售債券投資組合所引發的損失,美股費城KBW銀行指數跌幅擴大至5.3%,創近一年來最大日內跌幅。富蘭克林鄧普頓入息投資投資總監Ed Perks表示,該行基本情況預期美國加息3次每次25點子,但估計利率將處於高位更長的時間,2024年潛在減息力度亦會更少。

02港股方面,美股下跌帶動恆指向下,恆指低開344點,其後跌幅擴大,曾跌643點,恆指收市跌605點,收報19319點,成交1664.7億元。港股跟美股一樣被壞消息所包圍,包括: 內地汽車業因銷量下滑兼庫存高企,不得不減價促銷,而且在新能源車補貼下,燃油車銷量慘淡,加上新能源車還集價降價,對燃油車造成巨大壓力減價壓力,另外,市傳今年6月內地將實施新排放標準,導致部分燃油車需提前清倉處理,這波減價潮持續蔓延,傳統車企也加入減價行列,而且減價幅度更狠。內房方面,被列爲「示範民企」之一的旭輝公佈,以9.48億元人民幣出售河北和湖50%股權及貸款,售予恆地旗下廣州捷駿,旭輝預計自出售事項錄得虧損約5.08億元人民幣。停牌近一年的佳兆業公佈截至去年6月底止,虧損錄得76.7億元(人民幣),收入則按年跌55.3%至134.3億元。總結: 港美股市場正滯後反映早前美元指數和國債收益率上升所帶來的金融系統和經濟問題,相信最壞情況仍未出現。

 

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