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《大行報告》摩通上調中石化(00386.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)目標價 維持「增持」評級
摩根大通發表研究報告指,上交所總經理蔡建春日前(3月7日)在兩會提案,建議充分運用資本市場工具,推動央企專業化及產業化戰略性重組整合,從而發揮上市央企的產業鏈龍頭地位作用,推動央企估值合理回歸,中國石油股表現隨之上揚,當日升幅達2%至6%,跑贏市場表現。 摩通表示,提升派息及公司的中長期業績增長目標一直是股價催化劑,但到目前為止推動作用不大,認為國企改革措施可見度提升,可能會推動國有企業出台更有力的股息及回購政策,並會促使其制定更高的戰略目標,更能推動增長。 該行將中石化(00386.HK)、中石油(00857.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)派息比率預測從75%、45%及40%提高至80%、60%及50%,預測末期息將達到每股0.29、0.3及0.7元人民幣,對比H股現價水平股息回報達到7%、7.4%及6.9%。 該行又預期到2025年,中石化、中石油中海油的股本回報率將達到11.6%、10.7%及17.5%,高於市場預期,可能有助於行業重估。摩通將中石化及中石油目標價分別上調至5.5及5.4元,均維持「增持」評級。
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