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Capital Group在2022年慘敗後更加看好20年期股票和債券回報
uSMART盈立智投 03-03 14:43

美國公司Capital Group是全球最大的投資管理公司之一,管理着約2.2萬億美元的股票和固定收益資產。3月3日,該公司表示,去年市場遭受的打擊使其更加看好長期股票和債券回報。

一個由分析師和投資組合經理組成的委員會在一份報告中表示:“在經歷了大多數股票和固定收益資產類別出現兩位數下跌的動盪的一年之後,我們的20年回報率假設全面提高。”

他們預計美國股市在未來20年的年化回報率爲7.2%,高於他們在2021年底時預測的5.8%。對期限爲5至10年的美國政府債券的回報預期從2021年的1.6%增加了一倍以上,達到3.4%。

去年金融市場遭受重創,因爲全球央行積極收緊貨幣政策以對抗通貨膨脹、加息和加劇對可能出現的全球經濟衰退的擔憂。

Capital Group表示,預計美聯儲將維持其2%的通脹目標,但通脹路徑可能仍將動盪不安。

Capital Group全球資產類別服務主管Maddi Dessner在接受路透社採訪時表示:“我們確實預計美聯儲將隨着時間的推移成功控制通脹。”

她說:“由於美聯儲正在取消寬鬆政策,而且他們可能需要比我們預期的更快地這樣做,我們認爲圍繞該通脹數據將會出現額外的波動。”

美元預計將在長期內貶值,從而將新興市場股票的回報率推高至9%——這是資產類別中預期回報率最高的,高於此前6%的長期預測。

新興市場的債務回報率也被視爲最具吸引力,爲7.6%,本幣債務回報抵消了美元債務的潛在違約。

新興市場資產回報率的提高超過了中國較低的增長預期,中國未來20年的實際經濟增長預期從4%下調至3%。

該報告引用了該預測的幾個因素,包括“對影響私營部門投資的政策穩定性的擔憂,以及房地產市場放緩”。

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