《大行報告》高盛料中國「兩會」訂今年GDP增長目標5% 料需要時藉基建投資刺激經濟
高盛發表報告指,全國兩會將於本周末揭幕,會上將審議通過政府工作報告及財政預算案,國務院總理李克強將發表任內最後一份政府工作報告,當中將提到當局各種經濟目標。該行認為,去年中國未能實現增長目標,當局今年取態可能會更審慎,預計中國今年會將GDP增長目標訂於相對保守的約5%,而該行預測今年全年實際GDP可增長5.5%。
兩會中預期亦將公布財政數據及來年政策基調計劃,例如官方預算赤字率及地方政府特別債券配額等,高盛預料將分別達到3.2%及4萬億元人民幣,又指稅收增長預測可能會透露出中國當局對未來名義GDP增長的目標,以及中央控制地方政府隱性債務的決心等,同時亦可了解更多中央對房地產行業未來發展規劃及看法。
隨著人員流動、消費及房地產開始出現明顯復甦跡象,該行認為市場憧憬今年經濟增速基本步入正軌,因此預期今年內推出的周期性政策整體上刺激作用應較去年少。高盛又指,中國當局一直提出擴大內需及促進私人消費,但相信今年在全國範圍內大量發放現金補貼的可能性仍然很低,相信政府仍然會採取往常手段,即是在有需要時透過加快基建投資來刺激經濟。至於促進消費措施可能會是汽車及家電稅項補貼、加快租賃住房建設及小範圍發放地方消費券等。
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