一文綜合券商於港交所(00388.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
港交所(00388.HK)今早股價偏軟,現跌2.6元報319元,摩根士丹利表示港交所上季每股盈利2.35元符合預期,收入亦大致符合預期,指季內投資收入增長強勁,指較低的有效稅率亦支持核心盈利表現,但該行關注港股IPO市場較弱及港交所自身估值較高。
公司昨中午(23日)公布截至去年業績,純利100.78億元年跌19.6%,符合本網綜合16間券商預測區間96.18億元至104.23億元;基本每股盈利7.96元。派第二次中期股息每股3.69元,較2021年第二次中期息每股4.18元減少11.7%。連同第一次中期股息每股3.45元,全年共派每股7.14元,較2021年度派息減少19.5%。
去年全年港交所收入及其他收益達184.56億元,按年跌11.9%,全年投資收益淨額按年升4%至13.56億元;公司資金的投資虧損淨額為4,800萬元,對比2021年錄收益7.08億元,主要由於外部組合去年錄得公平值由盈轉虧。
【業績符預期 憂IPO市場】
匯豐環球研究發表報告表示,港交所去年每股盈利按年跌19.6%至7.96元,惟仍勝該行及市場預期分別3.3%及2.1%,去年第四季顯著反彈是由於市場活動復甦,日均成交額按季增長31%至1,270億元,相對於第三季為970億元,核心收入按季增長6.9%至42億元。
該行認為,利好港交所因素包括可能於今年中推出「港幣-人民幣雙櫃台模式」及互聯互通下增加中東主權財富基金對中港上市投資等多項舉措將推出,不過受美國聯儲局加息預期及地緣政治不明朗等因素影響,料削弱港交所的日均成交額,因此對其今明兩年的盈利預測分別下調0.9%及4.1%,目標價由430元降至422元,維持「買入」評級。
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下表列出9間券商對港交所的投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價
高盛│買入(「確信買入」名單)│441元
野村│買入│424.78元
匯豐環球研究│買入│430元->422元
瑞銀│買入│422元->418元
摩根大通│增持│400元
美銀證券│買入│360元
瑞信│中性│355元
花旗│沽售│280元->290元
摩根士丹利│減持│220元
券商│觀點
高盛│收入較預期為高
野村│去年第四季收益理想由投資收益增長所帶動
匯豐環球研究│季績正面,但地緣政治風險及利率景令不確定性升
瑞銀│去年業績符預期,料市場可持續復甦
摩根大通│公司妥善控制成本
美銀證券│投資收益增長強勁,及有望延伸至今年
瑞信│上季業績略優預期
花旗│指核心收入趨勢仍低於預期
摩根士丹利│上季投資收益增長強勁,擔憂IPO融資下跌及過高估值
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