高盛:對衝基金今年有望獲得更好回報
高盛的Ben Snider等策略師週二表示,對衝基金有望從對美國選股者越來越有利的環境中受益。他們今年年初分析了758家對衝基金總共2.3萬億美元的股票持倉。結果顯示,衡量基金利用槓桿建倉的一項指標接近歷史高位,這表明它們“恰逢其時地利用了”處於改善狀態的選股條件,越來越受微觀驅動的市場預示着對衝基金的回報迎來好兆頭。
高盛團隊表示,未來幾個月可能跑贏大市的標普500指數成份股包括在線流媒體領導者奈飛、天然氣勘探公司EQT能源和計算機處理器製造商AMD。該評估考慮了上個季度的回報分佈和對衝基金的頂級多頭頭寸。
市場對經濟衰退和利率波動加劇的擔憂使2022年成爲全球股票回報受宏觀驅動的一年。然而,過去幾周個股之間的相關性出現下降,表明選股和主動策略的環境正在改善。這一變化意味着股票走勢更有可能是受到特定的基本面而不是宏觀消息驅動。

數據顯示,1月份MSCI ACWI全球指數的平均成對相關性指標觸及2021年10月以來的最低水平,而爲期一個月的回報率差異脫離疫情的低點飆升至高於平均水平。
高盛團隊還稱:“在本世紀頭十年中期受微觀驅動的環境中,對衝基金的回報普遍高於去年那樣由宏觀驅動的市場環境。”
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