世邦魏理仕料退稅優惠減少將與消費券效益相應抵銷
世邦魏理仕香港區研究部主管陳錦平指出,最新一份預算案預期香港經濟今年將明顯反彈,本地生產總值增長將達到3.5%至5.5%,將可帶動房地產行業各物業的需求,預料整體租賃及交投活動將於2023年顯着復甦。另外,政府預計2024至2027年間每年經濟增長達3%至3.7%,反映香港經濟復甦將維持一段長時間,該行相信將令未來三至四年商業房地產需求持續,可望加強投資者對本港中期前景的信心。
他認爲,政府連續第三年派發消費券將確保零售市場穩健復甦,同時旅遊消費有望增長,隨着未來幾個月旅客的逐漸迴歸,加上消費券提振本地消費,預計今年第二季度及第三季度的零售總額將出現強勁增長,估計消費券相當於2022年整體零售總額的約9%。但由於薪俸稅和個人入息課稅退稅優惠上限降至6,000元,預期將與消費券效益相應抵銷。
政府計劃引入新的「資本投資者入境計劃」,該行預期將有助提升香港作爲國際金融中心的前景,並支持香港資產管理及財富管理行業的發展,吸引高資產淨值人士(HNWIs)及高端人才來港生活及工作,增強本港競爭力,有利整體零售市場發展。然而,由於房地產行業並非計劃下的合資產類別,或未能爲房地產行業帶來直接好處。
陳錦平預計,政府計劃吸引外地企業遷冊香港,預計可提升香港作爲國際企業設立的亞太區總部的競爭優勢。隨着更多的高級管理人員及商務決策者移居香港,長遠而言,這將有利於寫字樓及豪宅物業的需求。
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