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高盛:美聯儲將再加息25基點三次
uSMART盈立智投 02-21 20:12

高盛首席經濟學家Jan Hatzius今日接受媒體採訪時預測,美聯儲將在3月、5月和6月的會議上分別加息25個基點,以應對比預期更加火熱的通脹率。Jan Hatzius表示:“近期的各項經濟數據在增長方面均強於市場預期,而且我們看到1月份通脹數據大幅上升。”他表示:“我不認爲這一定會打破抗擊通脹的趨勢,但我認爲這強化了美聯儲仍有許多工作要做的觀點。”“因此我們認爲,更有可能的結果是,從現在開始再加息75個基點,直到2024年纔有可能降息。”

美聯儲最青睞的通脹指標以及1月份的消費者支出指數將於本週公佈,本週還有多家央行將公佈利率決議,市場預計將在全球央行行長之間引發是否需要調整至更激進加息步伐的辯論。

經濟學家普遍預計美國1月個人支出價格指數(PCE1指數)將環比上漲0.5%,爲2022年年中以來最大漲幅;預計美聯儲最青睞的通脹指標——核心PCE物價指數將環比上漲約0.4%,可能創下去年9月來最高水平。

當被記者問及美聯儲重返50個基點的預期前景時,Hatzius持懷疑態度,但並不完全排除這種可能性。

“這將是相對重要的一步,因爲如果他們(美聯儲)在3月選擇加息50個基點,美聯儲官員們需要看到相當多的信息來推動他們有效地管理這個預期,而我認爲我們還沒有看到這種情況。”

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