高盛上調利率預期至5.25-5.5%
高盛表示,目前預計美聯儲今年還將加息三次,每次加息25個基點。近期公佈的數據顯示,通脹居高不下,勞動力市場表現強勁。週四公佈的一份報告顯示,1月生產者價格指數(PPI)增幅爲七個月來最大,而另一份報告顯示,上週初請失業金人數意外下降。以Jan Hatzius爲首的高盛經濟學家表示:“鑑於強勁的經濟增長和更加堅挺的通脹消息,我們預計美聯儲6月份將再加息25個基點,基金利率峯值爲5.25-5.5%。”
與此同時,貨幣市場目前預計7月份的最終利率爲5.3%。在最新數據公佈前,接受調查的多數經濟學家預計,美聯儲在未來幾個月將至少再加息兩次,並有進一步加息的風險,沒有人預計美聯儲會在今年降息。
在美國近期數據公佈之前,摩根大通曾預測6月底前的峯值利率爲5.1%,而美銀全球研究曾預測年底前的峯值利率爲5.0%至5.25%。
在上週勁爆的非農就業數據出爐之前,利率期貨市場甚至預計美聯儲加息週期的利率峯值僅爲4.75%-5%。此前,美國銀行預計今年還將有兩次加息,每次加息25個基點。
黑石總裁Jonathan Gray昨日表示,儘管出現了通脹放緩的跡象,但美聯儲將把利率提高到5.25%-5.5%的水平(即還要加息75個基點),然後長期保持該利率水平。德意志銀行也在近日表示,最新的通脹數據顯示美聯儲將需要進一步收緊貨幣政策,該行目前將美國利率峯值預期從5.1%上調至5.6%,並預計美聯儲將在6月和7月分別加息25個基點。
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