《大行報告》大摩下調中國海外(00688.HK)目標價至25.7元 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表報告指,中國海外(00688.HK)的建設在疫情爆發期間面臨與其他開發商一樣出現類似延誤,從而導致去年的收入和盈利下降。不過,該行看好中國海外高於同行的合同銷售前景,這是受惠於其擁有豐富的土地儲備和強勁的資產負債表。
該行預期,由於去年中國海外施工中斷和預售下降,物業銷售下跌15%至2,030億元人民幣;綜合毛利率將收窄至21.3%(對比2022年上半年為23.5%);儘管銷售管理費用有所節省且土地增值稅較低,收入下降、毛利率壓縮和資產減值損失應會導致核心盈利下降20%;30%的派息率意味著約4%的股息收益率。
大摩預計,中國海外的管理層將對今年的有積極的預售增長指引,又認為集團可維持其作為主要市場整合者的地位,今年的合同銷售額增長超過10%。此外,中國海外去年收購項目的毛利率比當前水平高出2至3個百分點,相信項目自明年起應該會有更多潛在的利潤率上行空間。該行將中國海外目標價下調近4%,由26.7元降至25.7元,此基於對其今年每股資產淨值預測36.77元折讓30%作估值,維持「增持」評級。
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