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市場對“金髮女孩”行情過於樂觀

渣打銀行全球研究部主管兼首席策略師埃裏克·羅伯森(Eric Robertsen)週日發表報告稱,從股市到企業信貸市場,投資者對各央行將推動經濟實現軟着陸進而推升風險資產價格的押注是一廂情願。他認爲,今年的漲勢將暫停。

儘管與絕大多數預測機構一樣,渣打銀行也預計美聯儲本週將放緩加息步伐,但羅伯森對交易員押注美聯儲從今年6月開始將降息近150個基點表示擔憂。他在今年年初至今已經上漲超過7%的全球股市中看到了同樣毫無根據的樂觀情緒。

羅伯森表示:“風險資產的復甦似乎取決於一種脆弱的平衡行爲,即增長和通脹疲軟到足以阻止聯邦公開市場委員會加息,但又不會達到敲響增長和利潤警鐘的程度。市場對‘金髮女孩’(Goldilocks)行情的期望過於樂觀。”

他還指出,VIX恐慌指數下降掩蓋了實時指標的情況,例如美國商業信心指數調查顯示經濟動力正喪失。此外,美國勞動力市場尚未出現不利因素。

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美聯儲將於週四凌晨公佈利率決議,歐洲央行和英國央行也將在週四做出利率決定,本週市場可能會驗證以上觀點,本週早些時候,中國將公佈工業企業利潤和PMI數據,而美國將於週五公佈失業率和非農就業數據。

Pepperstone Group研究主管Chris Weston表示,儘管市場幾乎沒有出現緊張的跡象,本週將是近期風險最大的一週之一。他對市場走向表示樂觀,但對不斷上漲的大宗商品價格持謹慎態度。

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