春節消費回暖提振市場基本面修復預期，哪些行業最受益？
春節假期海內外經濟仍是“此消彼長”——國內出行/消費顯著回暖，海外“經濟放緩、緊縮退坡”。海外權益市場普遍上漲，新興/發達市場共振，成長好於價值，恆指漲幅居前。海外流動性/信用風險指標整體改善較爲顯著，海外風險溢價有所回落。
A股春季躁動——企業盈利改善預期在“春節消費刺激+中期疫後復甦”下進一步確認。分子端：23年春節期間影視/旅遊/餐飲/出行等主要線下消費回暖跡象明顯，防疫優化後及春節前夕A股多數板塊23年盈利一致預期顯著上修，如資源、可選消費、必需消費、TMT等行業，企業盈利改善預期在春節消費回暖下進一步確立；（2）分母端：驅動A股估值從悲觀預期中修復的兩大動力中期仍在繼續：穩增長政策與資本市場改革驅動風險溢價下行+美債利率中期下行壓力支撐A股估值修復，中美“此消彼長”仍是23年權益市場最大機遇。
春節消費回暖提振市場基本面修復預期，A股市場交易因子有望繼續圍繞【買環比△g】展開。23年春季是經濟急凍後復甦的驗證期，經濟復甦統一預期尚未完全成形，當前【強預期】時刻仍是△g佔優。同時展望後續，春節消費顯著回暖初步釋放了23年經濟修復向好的積極信號，近期盈利預期上修亦爲佐證，有望進一步提振市場對於經濟復甦品種信心，並驅動市場交易因子繼續圍繞【買環比△g】展開。
港股：春節期間港股各行業盈利預測普遍上修，分子端盈利改善預期確立繼續助推港股牛市二階段價值重估行情。11.18《港股“牛市三階段”》以來我們強調港股“牛市三階段”論：主權風險溢價下降→價值重估→盈利兌現。二階段行情需要市場對於基本面修復預期得到確認。春節消費回暖下港股各行業盈利預測普遍上修，有望繼續助推二階段行情。
“春季躁動”繼續沿着“託底+重建”推薦“低估值△g”。我們維持11.10日“破曉”以來的判斷——“港股走牛市、A股走修復市”。疫後經濟復甦與春節消費數據回暖進一步確認企業盈利改善預期，今年在罕見脫離外需的背景下，與13年、19年【弱現實】的背景更爲相似；但23年“疫情”與“地產信用”出現過去2-3年的大級別拐點，因此擴內需仍有更大潛力，對於今年的復甦強度和政策連貫性，當前並不明朗，一季度末是重要驗證時點。當前【強預期】階段，繼續尋找低估值△g作爲配置思路:
1.疫後修復鏈+估值合意（旅遊及景區/影視院線/廣告營銷/一般零售/疫苗/黃金珠寶）；
2.地產鏈普遍估值低位（地產/裝修建材/家電），大金融仍在估值底部（保險/證券）；
3.部分成長景氣預期23年改善（通用自動化/計算機/半導體設計）。
風險提示：疫情控制反覆，全球經濟下行超預期，海外不確定性等。
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