壞消息不跌，高盛：這是強烈看漲信號
微軟的業績指引不及預期，但是市場卻沒有一直做空微軟股票，這在高盛看來，是一個強烈的看漲信號。
繼週三的戲劇性市場逆轉和今天重新做空的嘗試失敗後，高盛交易部門在週四開始衝看跌轉向看漲。
就週三市場的活躍程度來看，高盛認爲週三美股活躍程度能夠打7分（滿分10分）。在發佈不及預期的業績指引後，在週三的第一個交易小時，高盛發現，出現了非常多的科技股限價訂單賣盤，但隨後賣家並沒有持續出售微軟的股票，隨着賣盤減少，週三微軟的跌幅也有所收窄。
高盛據此認爲：
當美股市場沒有因爲微軟不及預期的指引這樣的壞消息而下跌時，通常是看漲信號。
高盛認爲，美股市場比大多數投資者認爲的更有彈性。
週二美股盤後發佈的微軟四季報儘管在對一季度的指引方面不盡如人意，但整體來看，核心業務智能雲的收入增長放緩程度沒有市場預期的大，雲業務相對強韌幫助抵消了美元走強和個人電腦相關業務下滑的打擊，力挺公司的總盈利仍優於預期。
業績電話會上，微軟稱，在12月增速35%左右的基礎上，一季度Azure雲計算業務的增速會再放緩4或5個百分點，預計2023財年下半年，商業銷售增長將放緩。微軟股價盤後轉跌。
但摩根士丹利卻不同意高盛的觀點。
“大空頭”摩根士丹利首席策略師Michael Wilson本週表示，僅一週，市場對於全球經濟的看法已然發生了轉變，但這並不會影響美股在2023年的下跌，各大公司的盈利前景依舊不樂觀。
Wilson稱，投資者們可以認爲是對經濟衰退的“大轉向”推動了2023年初美股的上漲，但他們認爲此前被嚴重做空的美股，是推動年初市場上漲的主要因素：
今年的漲勢是由此前低質量並被嚴重做空的股票帶動的，同時週期性股票相對於防禦性股票的強勁走勢也使得美股開年走勢強勁。
Wilson稱這種週期性輪動讓投資者相信，他們錯過了美股底部，必須對其價格重新定位，但Wilson強調市場現在仍然處於熊市的最後階段，標普500或將創新低：
熊市在最後階段有總是試圖愚弄投資者們，總是最棘手的，我們一直高度警惕這種假象。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
