《大行報告》大和:春節後碳酸鋰價格有望反彈 贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)和天齊鋰業(09696.HK)評級「買入」
大和發表報告指出,對今年全球鋰供應量由110萬噸碳酸鋰當量(LCE)提高至113萬噸,大致符合贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)的預測110萬噸LCE。
該行基於對今年內地新能源車銷售約900萬輛的預測,對全球鋰需求預測由113萬噸LCE上調至115萬噸,大致符合雅寶公司(ALB.US)預測120萬噸LCE。這意味著今年鋰短缺約1.9萬噸LCE,相對於去年短缺約1.2萬噸。然而,如內地對新能源車銷售為800萬輛,全球鋰需求料降至109萬噸LCE,意味鋰供應過剩約3.9萬噸LCE。
該行相信,春節後碳酸鋰價格將從目前水平每噸47.5萬元人民幣反彈,主要由於下游庫存回補,而內地需求情況為價格上行空間帶來不確定性。根據贛鋒鋰業消息,由於內地逐步取消對新能源車補貼,在預測今年需求可能疲弱下,下游企業已自去年第四季中期開始去鋰庫存,而鋰庫存水平約達2個月,較去年首季水平為低,意味著春節過後需要重新備貨。
此外,該行預期在基本情境預測下,今年鋰價按年下跌,並在第二季至第四季持續降價,至年底將降至約每噸40萬元人民幣的水平。另重申對內地鋰業的正面看法,對贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)和天齊鋰業(09696.HK)H股評級「買入」。
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