股市2024年料迎來上漲。
摩根士丹利策略師Michael Wilson預計,隨着美國經濟熬過盈利下滑期,股市2023年經歷艱難之後,2024年料迎來上漲。
“儘管我們短期內對盈利感到悲觀,但我們實際上可能比多數人都更看好2024年,因爲我們認爲我們處於繁榮——蕭條——繁榮的環境中,”Wilson表示,“如果你認同我們明年的盈利預測,那麼你差不多就得認同我們今年的盈利預測,市場不會對此視而不見。”
他的言論詳細闡述了他週一致客戶的報告觀點,即投資者未能在2023年經濟數據和盈利疲軟的背景下進行定價。他寫道,最近對美聯儲鷹派程度弱化和美元走弱的樂觀情緒已經反映在股價中。
“問題在於,股票何時將反映當前領先數據的疲軟以及硬數據的最終疲軟?”Wilson寫道,“我們認爲是這個季度。”他是機構投資者調查去年排名最一的策略師。
繼標普500指數去年10月中旬以來上漲12%之後,Wilson的觀點是個警訊。鑑於盈利預測數月來一直在下降,該指數估值與歷史平均水平相比偏高。
盈利也是摩根大通策略師Mislav Matejka的關注點。他指出,隨着美國和歐洲的利潤率接近紀錄高位之際,企業定價能力開始逆轉,今年的環境將尤具挑戰性。
“即使公司2022年第四季度的業績沒有令人失望,我們認爲今年上半年也不會出現每股收益上調,”Matejka在報告中寫道。
“我們將突破10月低點。我認爲至少我們會重新測試這些低點,”摩根士丹利的Mike Wilson表示。
美國銀行策略師Savita Subramanian等人認爲,第四季度財報季的初期結果表明,標普500指數成份股公司料較分析師調降後的預測低1%。
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