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機構投資者和對衝基金出現分歧,暗示美聯儲加息週期即將結束?
uSMART盈立智投 01-23 22:06

上一次對衝基金和資產管理公司對基準美國國債的未來產生如此分歧,是在美聯儲的貨幣政策緊縮週期即將在2018年底見頂的時候。

智通財經APP注意到,美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)的最新數據顯示,槓桿基金在10年期期貨上的淨空頭頭寸已增至2019年以來的最高水平。然而,更爲樂觀的機構投資者的淨多頭頭寸已攀升至2006年以來的創紀錄水平。

美國國債今年出現反彈,因市場押注美聯儲將很快結束一代人以來最嚴厲的加息。這可能推動快錢基金做空10年期公債相對於較短期公債,因預期收益率曲線將很快開始趨陡。

與此同時,資產管理公司等買入並持有的投資者正受到基準債券10多年來最高利率的吸引。

野村證券駐悉尼的利率策略師Andrew  Ticehurst表示,“利率市場正在形成看漲的主題,越來越多的人認爲美聯儲接近結束加息。人們的看法是,美聯儲未來的行動可能不會像目前的溝通暗示的那樣強硬。”

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