中信銀行料本港今年GDP增約4% 息率上半年見頂
中信銀行(國際)首席經濟師卓亮在電話會議中表示,本港經濟活動開始正常化,相信隨著今年零售市道逐漸復甦,消費將會反彈,加上失業人數減少,料全年GDP增長近4%。他相信,通關對本港的零售市道的影響將在春節假期後更為明顯,料屆時在名額限制及出入境要求上會有放寬。進出口數據方面,他認為上半年仍將受壓,下半年將有改善,但由於環球經濟表現不佳,料不會出現大幅改善。
他認為,美國的加息週期料將維持至上半年,香港很大機會跟隨美國加息,意味著本港息率仍有50至70個基點的上升空間,並將在上半年見頂。不過,他提到,由於市場已預期加息週期即將進入尾聲,認為更清晰的方向對樓市達到支撐作用,料今年樓價將會企穩,又不排除下半年錄得反彈,相信樓市表現將顯著較去年理想,預計全年樓價可有低單位數增長。
中國方面,他預期內地全年GDP增長逾5%,是由於中國防疫措施正常化及經濟開始重啟,且在有利基數下對今年經濟有支持作用。他料今年內地私人消費及服務業將錄得反彈,及可打通內循環,減少經濟增長對出口的依賴程度。經濟結構失衡問題亦有望得到改善,對提高生產力與居民收入發揮正面作用。
在債市方面,他指出,美國孳息曲線持續倒掛,長短息差創下逾40年最嚴重的倒掛程度,顯示經濟衰退機會相當高,全年經濟規模或會出現收縮。另外,美國去年已加息4.25厘,與美聯儲目標的5.1厘仍有距離,惟上升空間收窄,美國的加息週期料於上半年結束,基準利率水平將在全年餘下時間內維持不變,屆時縮表措施會成為主要貨幣政策工具,美國聯儲局所持有資產規模持續減少,當地資產價格仍將受壓。他預計美國今年通脹將持續下滑,並不會反覆上揚。
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