通脹還會升 美股還會跌!知名策略師:看多股市觀點毫無依據
華爾街知名經濟學家、歐洲太平洋資產管理公司首席市場策略師彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff)最近在一檔採訪欄目中稱,經濟衰退會變得更糟,通貨膨脹也是如此。
希夫稱,“一些主流人士似乎認爲股市有可能出現大幅反彈,不過這種樂觀是沒有根據的。”
例如,高盛財富管理業務部門首席投資官Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani認爲,標準普爾500指數也將在2023年反彈多達12%。
彼得·希夫則給了投資者當頭一棒,“我不認爲今年對股市來說是個好年頭。會有一些股票表現不錯,不幸的是,大多數美國人並不持有這些股票...大多數投資者持有的股票都會下跌。”
希夫還警告,2023年市場上還存在着很多的風險。
低通脹時代已結束
談到通貨膨脹,希夫則表示,目前這種通脹回落是暫時的,他不認爲通脹已經見頂,儘管有不少人士認爲通貨膨脹將會在今年內下降。
“可能要到2023年下半年,我們能夠看到比2022年更高的通貨膨脹率。也許會持續到2024年。”
希夫認爲,美元貶值和美聯儲最終堅持緊縮政策,將意味着未來的通貨膨脹率更高。
希夫還明確道,通脹率不會回到接近2%的目標水平,也就意味着,低通脹時代已經結束。
“我們正生活在一個高通脹的時代。這對美聯儲來說是一個徹底的改變,而美聯儲尚未接受這一新現實,市場也尚未接受。”
在採訪中,希夫指出,經濟即將出現反彈只不過是一種幻想。
“每個人都否認衰退的存在,實際上衰退會變得更糟。所以說,我們將會有一個更弱的經濟和更強的通貨膨脹。”
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