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《大行报告》海通国际:若内房红线政策放松 国企开发商市场份额或更快增长
海通国际发表研究报告指,据报中国或会放松对当地房地产行业的三条红线政策,允许更多开发商扩大借贷规模,从而提高负债比率,而全面遵守三条红线政策的最后期限将至少延长六个月。该行指,虽然遵守政策的开发商仍有可能拖欠贷款,惟认为放松政策有助于改善开发商的营运前景。该行表示,取消贷款规模增长上限将令国企开发商在土地收购和并购方面更加积极主动,又相信监管机构同样希望加快市场整合。 该行指,三条红线政策下,国企开发商在去年上半年的总借贷规模仍在扩大,而民企开发商的债务规模却在下降,因为后者难以藉债。越秀地产(00123.HK)、中海宏洋(00081.HK)等国企开发商的借贷总额按半年比较增长超过10%。相比之下,融信中国(03301.HK)、中梁控股(02772.HK)等中型民企开发商的借贷规模按半年比较下降了逾20%。该行认为,国企开发商仍在积极收购新地皮,且由于销售增长高于平均水平而愿意加大借债。 该行提到,如果取消三条红线政策,民企开发商可以在现有债务再融资方面有更多的灵活性。然而,该行认为他们不会寻求扩大债务规模。在大多数违约的民企开发商中,去杠杆化和债务重组仍然是首要任务。 该行相信,相比国企开发商,放宽再融资规则通常更加利好民企开发商,而再融资能力的提高将意味著减少贷款违约。如果更多政策松绑,或会成为龙湖(00960.HK)、碧桂园(02007.HK)等民企开发商的短期利好催化剂。该行续看好中国海外发展(00688.HK)、华润置地(01109.HK)、越秀地产和中海宏洋等国企开发商,因为长期来看,国企开发商将进一步提高市场份额。
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