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《大行報告》大摩升恆指「基本情境」目標至24,500點 薦受惠經濟再開放主題股
摩根士丹利發表中國資本市場策略報告表示,重申看好MSCI中國指數前景及予中國市場「增持」評級,並上調對恆指至今年12月的「基本情境」預測目標,由原來21,200點升至24,500點,相當預測市率11倍,料恆指按「由上而下」計今明兩年每股盈利增長均13%。 該行亦上調對國指至今年12月的「基本情境」預測目標,由原來7,400點升至8,250點,相當預測市率10倍;該行亦升MSCI中國指數「基本情境」預測目標,由原來70點升至80點,相當預測市率11.5倍;該行亦升滬深300指數「基本情境」預測目標,由原來4,350點升至4,500點,相當預測市率12.1倍。 大摩同時調高對恆指至今年12月的「牛市情景」目標,由原來24,500點升至27,000點,相當預測市率11.5倍,料恆指按「由上而下」計今明兩年每股盈利分別增長16%及14;該行亦調高對國指「牛市」情景目標,由原來8,200點升至9,100點。 大摩對恆指至「熊市情景」目標,由原來13,900點升至16,500點,相當預測市率8.5倍。 該行建議買入受惠中國經濟再開放的主題股,並買入離岸(港股+ADR)及削減對A股敞口,同時觀察拐點信號。該行料在全球/新興市場股票投資組合中建議「高配」中國,因為相信中國將在2023年表現理想。 大摩亦列出受惠中國「再通關」(reopening)主題股份名單,包括看準(BZ.US)、安踏(02020.HK)、攜程(TCOM.US)、百勝中國(YUMC.US)、李寧(02331.HK)、中升(00881.HK)、新濠博亞(MLCO.US)、滔博(06110.HK)、新秀麗(01910.HK)、福壽園(01448.HK)、五糧液(000858.SZ)、百威亞太(01876.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、藥明康德(02359.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、泰格醫藥(300347.SZ)、同仁堂國藥(03613.HK)、國泰(00293.HK)、中銀航空租賃(02588.HK)、太古A(00019.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)。
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