港股現時仍處於牛熊反轉初期，有望進入三級火箭行情
來源：國泰君安證券研究
港股2023年“開門紅”，企穩兩萬點關口，創逾5個月高位。恆生指數於年初兩個交易日累計上漲5.1%，重回250日均線上方；恆生科技指數累計升7.2%。從行業表現來看，零售、軟件與服務、媒體、房地產等板塊漲幅居前。
科網股、內房股等權重板塊持續受到政策消息利好，港股近期重拾上漲動力，且彈性顯著高於A股。科網股及平臺經濟方面，近期騰訊多款遊戲獲得國家新聞出版署網絡審批通過，此外重慶銀保監局批覆通過螞蟻集團旗下重慶螞蟻消費金融公司的增資方案，市場預期後續監管力度將繼續邊際放鬆。地產方面，市場預期政策端將進一步支持優質房企融資，並期待更多需求端的支持政策，帶動港股地產行業再度上漲。
擴內需政策預期繼續加碼，仍是短期市場交易主線。國內出口及景氣度數據仍然疲弱，需待託底措施持續支持。爲儘快扭轉當前信心不足的問題，政策端可能加大對數字經濟和平臺企業的支持力度，以改善就業、提升居民收入預期；地產需求側也可能有更多支持政策，包括部分限制措施放鬆，以及房貸利率成本有進一步下行的空間。
現階段策略建議：分注收集，逢低加倉。港股現時仍處於牛熊反轉初期，可能會出現交易層面的預期兌現後的階段性調整。但由於分母端的無風險利率預期下行，以及市場風險偏好的持續改善，市場大概率調整幅度較有限。因此，現階段採取分注收集、逢低加倉的策略或可取得較高的勝率和期望收益。
中期來看，政策底到業績底的震盪和回撤並不會改變港股的上升軌跡，我們預期壓制指數表現的負面因素預期將分階段修復，港股有望進入三級火箭行情。即從一級火箭助力風險偏好回暖，不確定性消除，港股由估值陷阱轉爲估值窪地，投資者拾起進場的勇氣，二級火箭海外流動性趨於寬鬆帶動港股估值修復，三級火箭推動恆指轉爲盈利驅動的牛市行情。
行業配置方面，建議繼續圍繞“逆境反轉”策略主線。1）國內地產鏈，期待需求端的政策發力。2）國內消費鏈，部分跟消費場景打開相關的行業股價已經計入較多樂觀預期，但跟消費力相關的板塊還處於底部，未來可以從餐飲服務、酒店、旅遊、航空等品種，逐漸切換至與居民收入、消費力相關的行業，如互聯網零售、可選消費的汽車、消費電子等。3）海外流動性敏感品種，創新藥、黃金和半導體等。
風險因素：1）國內擴內需政策力度不及預期；2）海外通脹超預期；3）高通脹疊加經濟衰退，可能提升歐債風險；4）地緣政治衝突。
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