《大行報告》高盛上調中國今年GDP增長預測至5.2% 料MSCI中國指數有15%上行空間
高盛發表研究報告指,中國股市去年極度波動,地緣政局、全球利率上升、對中國清零政策的憂慮、房市,以及中概股退市風險等,在去年10月底一度將MSCI中國指數推跌至十一年低,投資者對中國資產的可投資性存疑;不過,在去年中共「二十大」後,中國大幅改變其防疫政策重點(去年12月國家衛健委發表「新十條」),雖然過去兩個月本土確診急升,但中國股市強勁復甦,MSCI中國指數在去年11月升29%,屬1999年7月以來表現最佳,令全年跌幅收窄至24%,上升動力並持續至今年。今年首個交易星期指數累升約8%,屬1995年以來最佳開局。
報告稱,中國改變防疫政策,是增長及股市上升的主因。受惠內地早於預期改變清零政策,該行近期將中國今年GDP增長預測由4.5%上調至5.2%。過去一年中國家庭積累多達2萬億元人民幣的額外儲蓄,料驅動消費復甦及帶動增長。而今年更強勁的經濟增長預測令該行上調中國股票盈利增幅預測,由原先8%上調至13%,令該行盈測上調至與市場一致。
此外,高盛稱,股票估值及投資者情緒受惠於更聚焦增長的政策方向,部分反映於防疫政策急速改變,但更多在於更實際的政策放寬,及以數字經濟、房市以及私企為中心、更市場友善的友好政策導向。
該行稱,內地重新開放可大致分為四個階段,首兩階段(撇銷本地封城、恢復跨省出行)大致已完成,剛亦重啟了與香港及澳門免檢疫通行(第三階段),第四階段為恢復與國際免檢疫通行。
高盛表示,內地重新開放快過預期,為市場帶來驚喜,但認為市場尚未完全反映有關因素,料MSCI中國指數在現水平(至今年底)有15%進一步上行空間。該行所覆蓋以消費周期股及面對面銷售股為主的重新開放受惠股組合,自去年11月累升46%,但與整體指數僅睇齊,料意味在消費股以外更大範圍的估值重評正在進行。該行估算,自去年11月以來46%的升幅中,有26個百分點是歸因於重新開放。
該行重申對中國在岸及離岸股票的「增持」建議,MSCI中國指數未來12個月目標價,由70上調至80。該行更新其重新開放受惠股組合,加入12隻消費者相關股,並剔出若干股份,詳見另表。
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