《大行報告》大和普遍上調多家壽險股目標價 首選友邦、保誠及國壽
大和發表研究報告,指內地消費及物業市場迎來拐點,內地壽險行業經歷過去三年疫情干擾後,考慮利率上行趨勢,銀保渠道加快,以及長者護理產品漸入佳境,該行指在新業務(債務面)及投資(資產面)均見更佳前景。該行對今年保險板塊兩大投資主題為消費及物業,因其他因素也取決於這兩大要素。
該行料短期而言,資產面因素如利率及房市,都會驅動行業整體改善。中國自2020年開始的利率下行周期料於今年結束,受房市融資放寬及政府基本開支潛在增加等五大因素所支持。大和料,國債孳息率走穩甚至反彈,將為險企盈利上行鋪路,並提振市場信心。此外,中國近期積極支持房市,將短期紓緩市場對險企房地產敞口的憂慮,並在險企長期資金分配中增加非標資產的供應。最後,險企對近期股市反彈敏感度高,估算A股市場每升1%,可對上市險企盈利帶來4%至11%的提振,或對內涵價值帶來0.2%至0.6%的提振。中期而言,板塊基本面將受消費復甦所驅動。
大和指,未來6至12個月,銀保渠道料屬疫後新業務復甦的主要驅動力。該行料今年內地保險行業首年保費按年有雙位數增長,新業務價值料按年有正增長。
該行普遍上調多家壽險股評級及目標價(詳見另表),惟下調業務以產險為主的中國財險(02328.HK)評級至「持有」,行業首選友邦(01299.HK)、保誠(PRU.LN)及國壽(02628.HK)。
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