《大行報告》中金升新東方在線(01797.HK)目標價至58元 評級「跑贏行業」
中金發表報告,預計新東方在線(01797.HK)2023上半財年收入19億元人民幣,按年增長232%,經調整淨利潤5.5億元人民幣,經調整淨利潤率為29%,去年同期虧損4.1億元人民幣,收入利潤增長幅度較大主要由於公司直播流量在本財年增長迅速,業務模式逐漸成熟,自有品牌形象初步建立且盈利水平較高。
中金預計,2023上半財年直播業務收入佔比為84%,根據飛瓜數據整理直播營運數據顯示日均GMV提升,東方甄選粉絲總量從去年6月94 萬人增長到11月3,614萬人;日均商品成交金額由去年6月2,507萬元人民幣,增長至11月3,058萬元人民幣,得益於轉化率和客單價的提升。
由於直播業務日均商品成交金額提升,中金分別上調2023和2024財年收入46%和33%,至37億元人民幣和44億元人民幣,考慮到直播業務盈利能力提升,分別上調調整後歸母淨利潤48%和49%至11億元人民幣和13 億元人民幣。維持「跑贏行業」評級,調整至2024財年估值,2024財年直播商品成交金額預期為120億元人民幣,上調目標價123%至58港元,較當前股價具有16%的上行空間。
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