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瑞銀料內地今波疫情或下月大致完結 經濟3月開始反彈
阿思達克 01-05 15:15
瑞銀投資銀行部全球經濟與策略研究主管Arend Kapteyn表示,全球主要經濟體因疫情而導致的旅行限制已幾乎全部取消,但重新開放帶來的利好亦正減退,預期今年環球經濟增長僅2.2%,為過去55年以來第八低。 他提到,歐美主要經濟今年料僅錄非常輕微增長,甚至可能出現衰退,估計美國及歐元區今年經濟均只增長0.2%,英國經濟料收縮0.5%,加拿大經濟則倒退0.8%。由於美國勞工市場數據正在轉差,預期美聯儲或於今年下半年開始掉頭減息。 中國經濟方面,瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,隨著疫情限制取消及房地產業趨穩,中國經濟料由去年的增長2.7%,改善至今年的增長4.9%。而實質消費增長料達6.6%,不過由於全球經濟持續疲弱,今年的出口或會出現按年下跌。 她提到,中國去年12月初退出疫情「清零」政策後,Omicron病毒快速傳播,估計此波疫情將大致於今年2月初完結,經濟料於3月開始有較大反彈,預期政府或將再下調存款準備金率及貸款市場報價利率(LPR)以支持經濟。而內地房地產政策已經轉向,行業料可於近月見底回穩。 她又認為,隨著美國加息周期至尾聲,美匯見頂,人民幣兌美元預期可回升至6.8水平。
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