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《大行報告》大摩:鋰價將受壓但已反映 微調贛鋒(01772.HK)及天齊鋰業(09696.HK)目標價
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,鋰價將面臨壓力,但已反映在股價中:電動汽車補貼在2022年底前部分取消,長期的清零政策影響了可支配收入。市場對大宗商品的需求開始轉弱,預計2023年乘用電動汽車銷量增長放緩,上半件或會走弱,料下半年會有所恢復,令全年銷量達到約740萬輛,按年增長15%(相對2022年增長96%)。 隨着2023年全球新增供應可能增加,與2021至22年的供應短缺相比,全球鋰供應更加平衡。然而,贛鋒(01772.HK)和天齊鋰業(09696.HK)的股價已經反映定價,風險回報更傾向於上行。贛鋒目標價由100元微降至99元,天齊鋰業由107.9元微升至108.8元。 該行表示,受到多晶矽價格下跌的推動,預計2023年全球太陽能裝機量將保持強勁。然而,隨着新的太陽能玻璃產能不斷投產,太陽能玻璃生產商明年仍然存在供過於求的問題。爲抓住穩固的需求,山東藥玻(600529.SH)I型瓶銷量預計將在2023年達到15億件,高於2022年的約9億,加上預期成本下降,將支持公司穩健的盈利增長。該行看好太平洋石英(603688.SH)、山東藥玻、力量鑽石(301071.SZ)、金力永磁(06680.HK)。
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