高盛:2023年美聯儲不會降息,美國經濟也能避免衰退
高盛預計美聯儲不會在2023年降息,並且美國經濟有能力避免衰退。
高盛首席經濟學家Jan Hatzius表示,他預計美聯儲不會在2023年降息,主要是因爲他比大多數專家更樂觀,認爲美國經濟有能力避免衰退。
Hatzius預測,經濟衰退可能會避免,因爲金融環境和貨幣政策收緊會限制勞動力市場,抑制GDP增長,但不足以引發經濟衰退。反過來,這將阻止美聯儲在年內降低利率,因爲沒有衰退將降低刺激的壓力。“我認爲,在通脹仍高於目標的非衰退環境下,美聯儲降息的障礙將相對較高。展望2023年,即使再加息,也會再加息75個基點,與美聯儲的預測相似,我認爲金融狀況的拖累將會更小。”
與此同時,這位高盛經濟學家認爲,由於整體通脹下降,2022年初實際家庭可支配收入大幅下降,以及消費者信心上升,經濟增長將得到支持。
Hatzius承認,他對未來一年的經濟預測比華爾街大多數人都要樂觀,他估計經濟下滑的機率爲35%。而世界大型企業聯合會最近進行的一項CEO衰退調查顯示,衰退的機率爲60%-65%。
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