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宏利投資管理:聯儲局仍有意明年加息 惟步伐放慢
阿思達克 12-16 17:49
宏利投資管理北美洲宏觀策略部主管Alex Grassino表示,鮑威爾所提及的訊息明確地透露,雖然預期經濟增長減弱,且失業率上漲,但聯儲局仍有意加息,只是步伐較今年放慢,並在一段更長時間內保持偏高利率。 他預期,聯儲局將在明年3月會議上加息最後一次,政策利率將於5.25厘見頂,並認為最終聯邦基金利率的高位可能較預期低0.25厘,又或者是加息週期可能會延續至明年5月。現階段最後一次加息的確實時間和幅度將完全取決於通脹數據,而溫和的按月通脹及按年增長數據放緩將成為關鍵因素。 他表示,儘管預計通脹不會重返聯儲局的2%目標,但通脹必需明顯並持續放緩。按月物價數據似乎逐步恢復至較正常水平,實屬利好現象。具體而言,核心貨品通脹緩和,為因第三季通脹數據高企而感到不安的投資者提供喘息空間,並有可能為最受疫情和俄烏衝突干擾的地區帶來紓緩作用。 他表示,要冷卻服務業通脹則相對棘手,因其一般由工資增長帶動,而且會對中期通脹持續升溫構成更大風險。不幸的是,最有可能令服務業通脹下跌的方法是經濟衰退。因此,勞工市場降溫是紓緩服務業通脹的必要條件,故預計情況將在明年首數月惡化。
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