市場太弱！“大宗商品旗手”高盛大幅下調油價預期
高盛認爲，原油現貨市場的大幅走弱，削弱了市場在俄羅斯原油出口受到制裁之前一直期待的看漲格局，高盛據此大幅下調原油在明年上半年的預期價格。不過，從長期來看，高盛認爲由於需求增加和過去十年投資不足，油價依然有望繼續走高。
12月13日週二，高盛在一份報告中稱，高盛將其對2023年第一季度和第二季度布倫特原油的預期分別從110美元下調至90美元和95美元，下調幅度分別爲18.2%和13.6%；將美國WTI第一季度和第二季度的平均價格從105美元下調至85美元和89美元，下調幅度分別爲19%和15.2%。
高盛稱，原油現貨市場的大幅走弱，削弱了市場在俄羅斯原油出口受到制裁之前一直期待的看漲格局。此外，上個月石油市場反季節供應增加了超過100萬桶/天，這也拖累原油價格。
不過高盛也稱，當前原油疲弱的局面是暫時的，主要反映了高於預期的俄羅斯原油流入市場。
高盛認爲，明年中國重新開放和恢復國際旅行，將帶來強勁的原油需求增長，而過去十年中的投資不足，將影響原油供應，因此從長期來看，高盛依然看多原油。
週二，儘管布倫特原油和WTI原油期貨均大幅上漲，但依然難以改變今年年中以來的跌勢。
高盛向來是原油的大多頭。
10月，高盛分析師Jeff Currie預測，在美國中期選舉之後，布倫特原油價格可能上漲30美元，達到125美元，但隨後市場的表現並非按照高盛的劇本走。
11月初，高盛繼續大膽預測，美國頁巖油氣生產放緩、美國停止釋放戰略油儲等因素都將加劇油價上漲壓力。此外，歐洲對俄實施海上原油禁令或將導致供給下降、油價上行，油價可能會在明年年初甚至今年12月開始上衝，並在明年一季度達到每桶115美元。
在對2023年的展望中，對於未來大宗商品的走勢，高盛認爲，由於石油行業仍面臨嚴重的投資短缺，俄羅斯、利比亞、伊拉克以及伊朗原油供應的不確定性加劇，原油價格有上行風險。高盛在展望中稱，全球大宗商品需求將在明年大幅上行，在這種情況下，能源、糧食等大宗商品產量、供應限制或再次使通脹惡化，爲央行帶來新的壓力。
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