《大行報告》高盛:內需股偏好啤酒、運動服品牌、化妝品、餐館及傳統家電等
高盛發表研究報告指,對明年的內需股前景持審慎樂觀看法,認為內地重新開放的憧憬及穩定地產市場的政策均屬利好因素,內地家庭的儲蓄率上升,亦可以支持重新開放後消費能力恢復,又相信行業整合和公司優化商業模式及提高效率來重置成本結構或會支持強勁的盈利復甦。
不過,根據其他地區的經驗,重新開放初期的復甦路徑並不平坦,在消費能力完全恢復之前需面臨降價風險,直至就業市場的工資及通脹回歸正常。另外,出生率下降或會繼續損害乳製品相關產品的復甦,而年輕人口的高失業率可能會在明年限制消費能力。
該行表示,考慮到盈利復甦及可見度,和其他不確定因素,該行看好啤酒、運動服品牌、化妝品、餐館、調味品、餐飲和傳統家電板塊,最看淡烈酒及珠寶股。
運動服裝板塊中,該行將李寧(02331.HK)列入確信買入名單,目標價65元,安踏(02020.HK)評級為「買入」,目標價95元。餐飲股當中,該行給予九毛九(09922.HK)「買入」評級,目標價看22元。至於啤酒股,華潤啤酒(00291.HK)被列入確信買入名單,目標價73元,百威亞太(01876.HK)評級為「買入」,目標價26元。
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