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2023展望 | 今年大宗商品漲少跌多,明年怎麼看?
uSMART盈立智投 12-09 10:05

今年隨着美聯儲等全球多個央行持續加息,多個國家利率水平到達高位。對經濟影響巨大,通脹高啓等使得多個大宗商品今年價格有所走低,那麼明年大宗商品該如何投資?

全球大宗今年表現

受全球經濟和需求等影響,今年大宗商品絕大多數出現下挫。Wind數據顯示,以20個主要大宗商品來看,今年以來只有天然氣、鎳、鐵礦石和大豆上漲,而且漲幅較大均超過10%。而其餘16個商品有所下跌,其中金屬錫跌幅最大達37%,此外焦煤、銅、橡膠等跌幅也不小,都在10%以上。總體上,今年大宗商品是漲少跌多,但少數品種漲幅巨大。

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具體表現一覽:

明年大宗投資方向展望

中信期貨屈濤分析認爲,2023年大宗商品主線有兩條:

1、海外衰退難以避免,總需求回落,因此看空海外宏觀定價商品(原油、銅)。

2、中美經濟週期錯配,在「低庫存+低利潤」的悲觀預期下,尋找低點做多國內黑色系反彈更有性價比,但需微觀數據不斷驗證。

能源:建議關注原油價格的空頭機會,而煤炭或僅爲震盪狀態。首先,我們預測未來美國衰退概率接近100%;此外,美聯儲長期通脹預期與WTI油價高相關,回落至2%對應WTI油價在46-77美元/桶區間,而OPEC主要生產國的財政盈虧平衡油價在65.8美元/桶附近(折算WTI油價70美元/桶)。在美國政府和美聯儲全力調控通脹的預期背景下,美國原油價格明年或很難長期超過80美元/桶。

有色:預計有色金屬供給整體偏寬鬆,全球經濟增速放緩,使得價格整體承壓。但需求端可能的亮點——國內房地產調控預期、基建韌性,新能源產業建設或限制品種下行空間。此處重點推薦上半年銅價回落機會。

貴金屬:明年年中貨幣收緊中止,疊加衰退預期,貴金屬或向上。白銀表現或強於黃金。金價低點1700美元/盎司,白銀低點20.40美元/盎司。

黑色:在「低庫存+低利潤」的背景下,國內定價的黑色系在極低底部不如做預期反彈性價比更高,與國內政策方向一致,但需要微觀數據支持。

民生證券牟一凌、胡悅則認爲,未來一年看,金最直接受到貨幣計價屬性的支撐,考慮到銅金比和油金比相對於美債利率仍顯低估,銅、油本輪受美元走弱的正向貢獻不會大幅弱於黃金。

供需角度看,油當下有更強的現實(供需相對緊張),中等的邊際變化;銅有相對較弱的現實(需求較弱,供給2023年仍有增加),但是有更大的邊際可能(能源緩解釋放歐洲需求,國內經濟恢復,以及2024年後新增產能匱乏有利於股票資產定價)。

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