You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
摩根士丹利5天內二度唱多中國股票,預計中國明年GDP增長5%

12月8日,摩根士丹利首席中國股票策略師 Laura Wang和摩根士丹利首席中國經濟學家Robin Xing再度唱多中國股票,認為中國股市的表現將跑贏廣大新興市場,甚至跑贏全球同行,因為中國政府持續優化疫情防控的果斷舉措將繼續幫助市場情緒復甦。

對於中國的宏觀經濟,Robin Xing認為中國將在2023年春季重新開放,預計中國的GDP增長在短期內仍將低於平均水平,明年春季的增長可能略有改善,但仍低於平均水平,但隨着正常化從春季展開,明年下半年經濟將出現更有意義的反彈,對中國全年經濟增長的預測為 5% 左右,高於市場預期。

Robin Xing解釋道,這將主要由私人消費帶動。他們預計,一旦經濟在夏季完全重新開放,被壓抑的需求就會得到釋放。

對於中國股市的短期和長期的投資前景,摩根士丹利更是自2021年1月以來保持相對謹慎近兩年後,在12月14日將全球新興市場背景下的中國股票上調至增持。

 Laura Wang表示這是因為有多個市場影響因素同時改善。最新的COVID政策轉向和房地產市場穩定措施將有助於促進宏觀復甦。美聯儲加息週期結束將改善流動性環境,人民幣兑美元走強也將提高對中國資產的吸引力。同時,我們也看到地緣政治緊張局勢方面出現令人鼓舞的跡象,所以,我們相信中國將再次開始跑贏更廣泛的新興市場。我們預計MSCI中國指數在年底前上漲約14%。

對於投資方向上,鑑於離岸對重新開放消費的彈性空間更大,、對人民幣走強的敏感性更高以及 PCAOB 積極結果的提振效應,摩根士丹利認為這是扭轉相對錶現的好機會。其次,現在是加碼非必需消費品並關注服務和耐用品的時候了。消費復甦在路上。

事實上,近期,高盛、摩根大通等公司的分析師紛紛表示,投資人應該改變對中國股票的態度,為重返該市場做好準備。

高盛預計MSCI中國和滬深300指數明年的回報率將為16%,高盛認為中國股票將在2023年跑贏其他市場,建議投資人增持。而摩根大通則預計2023年MSCI中國指數的上漲空間為10%。

摩根士丹利更是將MSCI中國指數2023年底目標點位從59點提高到70點,將恆指的目標點位從18200點提高到21200點。

大和發表2023年展望指,中國防疫政策轉向及美元走向放緩將主導市場走向,料短期內將出現市場風格轉換,並估計到明年第二季,資金會加快由價值股切換至增長股。大和對明年底恆指的基本情境目標價為22500點,上證指數為3550點。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account