瑞銀汪濤料內地未來兩至三個月經濟或續疲弱
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,內地政府正着力加速提高疫苗接種率、更加科學合理地制定宣傳策略、建立新冠分級分類診療體系,這將有助於減輕未來醫療體系的負擔。政府正在努力應對當前國內疫情和經濟社會形勢的快速變化,未來防疫政策優化調整步伐可能快於預期、防疫形勢大幅好轉的時點可能會早於明年3月兩會。
然而,隨着新冠感染病例不可避免地大幅攀升,政府仍需要時間加快推進多項重要準備工作並及時制定和調整應對策略,該行認爲在未來冬季的幾個月中,一些防疫限制措施仍將持續。
11月人員流動和經濟活動進一步走弱。儘管防疫政策進一步優化調整,考慮到一些防疫限制措施仍將存在一段時間,而且消費者短期內可能對線下活動仍持謹慎態度,未來兩至三個月經濟增長動能可能持續疲弱。如果政府退出「動態清零」防疫政策的時點早於該行的基準預測(例如在2月初或中旬),消費活動可能會更早反彈。
但新冠感染病例大幅攀升可能導致消費者對線下服務活動持謹慎態度,同時可能給生產和供應鏈帶來擾動。該行預計在走出疫情經濟重啓之後,消費和服務活動將大幅反彈,但是反彈力度可能不及中國2020年中或歐美經濟重啓後的情況。經濟重啓可能推動一些食品和服務業價格上漲,但是整體CPI增速應大致穩定。
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