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11月非農就業數據前瞻:勞動市場降溫,鞏固12月放緩加息步伐預期
格隆匯 12-02 10:31

隨着美聯儲加息,基準利率持續上行,華爾街預計美國勞動力市場將降溫。

今日21:30,美國勞工部將發佈11月就業報告。彭博數據顯示,華爾街對11月數據預測如下:

非農就業人數:預計增加20萬人,此前10月爲26.1萬人

失業率:預計3.7%,此前10月爲3.7%

每小時薪資:預計環比增長0.3%,同比增長4.6%,此前10月爲0.3%和4.7%

如果美國勞工部公佈的數據與華爾街預測的一致,將成爲自2021年4月以來最低。

值得注意的是,最近公佈的數據顯示,美國的勞動市場正在降溫。11月30日公佈的“小非農”美國11月ADP就業人數爲12.7萬,接近10月份的一半,爲2021年1月以來最小增幅;預估爲增加20萬人,前值爲增加23.9萬人。

不過,經濟學家Ian Shepherdson對ADP數據表示質疑,特別是該數據的收集方法進行了修改。他預計,今日的非農就業增加人數在25萬左右。

 

 企業“裁員潮”

近段時間以來,由於利率上升,對經濟衰退的預期增加,金融、科技公司裁員的消息層出不窮。Meta裁員超1.1萬人、亞馬遜裁員1萬人、推特裁員近半、Stripe裁員14%.....

據就業數據公司挑戰者數據,美國11月挑戰者企業裁員人數同比增加416.5%,遠高於前值48.30%,環比增加127.03%,遠高於前值12.85%。

11月美國企業的裁員數量爲7.7萬,是去年同期的5倍多,其中以科技公司爲主。據統計,今年以來,科技公司已宣佈裁員近8.1萬人。

美國財長耶倫週三在講話中表示,科技行業的裁員是一個例外,該行業面臨的“特殊因素”,包括經濟放緩和廣告收入下降。

耶倫表示,對未來增長預期的下降,促使企業重新考慮他們真正需要僱傭的人。

 

鞏固12月放緩加息步伐預期

 

對美聯儲來說,就業市場降溫是一個好消息,緊張的勞動市場會給工資帶來上漲的壓力,從而導致物價水平上升。耶倫週三也表示,不希望勞動力市場超越充分就業。

儘管勞動市場降溫,但美聯儲接下來仍將進一步加息以抑制通脹,不過步伐可能會放緩。美聯儲主席鮑威爾在週三的講話中暗示,12月將放緩加息速度和幅度。

鮑威爾還表示:“價格穩定是美聯儲的責任,是美國經濟的基石。如果沒有價格穩定,將無法實現一個持續的、對所有人都有利的強勁勞動力市場。”

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