大摩:Lululemon成“黑五”最大贏家
根據摩根士丹利的數據,Lululemon(LULU.US), 美鷹服飾(AEO.US)和維密(VSCO.US)被評爲“這個黑色星期五最大的贏家”。
根據銀行的渠道調查,Lululemon的客流量“在整個商場中明顯突出”,儘管折扣更少,但在光顧的地方明顯排起了長隊。此外,維密核心品牌的強勁銷售抵消了零售商PINK品牌明顯的增長放緩。最後,美鷹服飾和Abercrombie & Fitch的核心品牌在黑色星期五假日迎來了強勁的客流量和在線銷售。
大摩分析師表示,“在我們看來,這意味着這些零售商的品類可能與消費者產生共鳴,並允許這些品牌廣告帶來相對更有利可圖的黑色星期五銷售。”
相比之下,阿貝克隆比&費奇(ANF.US)的Hollister品牌、Gap(GPS.US)的旗艦品牌和Banana Republic品牌被認爲是零售日的“相對輸家”。儘管打折幅度很大,但這些品牌的客流量依然疲軟,引發了人們對各零售商第四季度銷售額和利潤率的擔憂。
大摩表示,“展望黑色星期五之後的未來,我們擔心消費者可能會推遲進一步的假日消費/購物,直到零售商再次提供更大的折扣。從歷史上看,當我們看到消費者在零售商庫存過剩的情況下猶豫不決時,零售商通常會首先做出反應,大幅降價以清空多餘的庫存。”
“在我們看來,這意味着未來5周折扣活動可能會惡化。這將帶來巨大的利潤率壓力,並使我們對零售商本假日季的利潤前景保持謹慎。”
在其他地方,沃爾瑪(WMT.US)和Five Below被列爲客流量高於平常水平的零售商,而Ulta Beauty則出現了較低的客流量。塔吉特(TGT.US)的表現“最讓團隊驚訝”,因爲儘管打折了,但客流量仍然很低。
假日銷售提前開始被認爲是消費者對黑色星期五折扣興趣降低的一個可能因素。
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