機構:港股市場拐點已至,關注互聯網與消費板塊
11月份市場反彈明顯
11月A股主要指數普遍上漲,地產及消費板塊相對佔優。11月(截至11月25日),A股主要指數普遍上漲,上證50上漲明顯,累計上漲了9.0%,而科創50表現最差,下跌了1.7%,其他主要指數中,滬深300、中證500及創業板指分別上漲了6.4%、4.3%和1.5%。行業方面,11月各行業也普遍上漲,其中,房地產、建築材料、建築裝飾表現相對較好,而國防軍工、計算機、通信等行業的表現較差。
港股表現同樣較好,主要指數均出現大幅反彈。截至2022年11月25日,恆生科技、恆生中國企業指數、恆生綜指、恆生指數和恆生香港35的漲跌幅分別爲20.3%、18.9%、18.7%、17.8%和16.0%。
A股觀點:拐點已至,短期佈局彈性品種,中期關注醫藥和消費板塊
拐點已至,持續看好市場反攻。對於目前的市場而言,最核心的改善來自於疫情防控預期的變化,但是展望未來,這並非市場能夠唯一看到的利好,市場可能還會陸續看到包括但不限於疫情改善的利好因素,主要包括:1)後續可能還會因時因勢優化完善和調整疫情防控舉措; 2)地產政策與銷售數據或將進一步邊際改善;3)11月、12月經濟數據或將底部回升;4)海外風險或將逐步緩和,北向資金恢復持續淨流入狀態。而這一系列因素將推動市場繼續上行。因此,我們認爲當前市場拐點已至,持續看好市場反攻。
短期佈局彈性品種。我們認爲市場在反彈的短期內,各行業表現將會較爲均衡。主要關注兩條主線,一是彈性品種主線,主要包括建築材料、食品飲料、電子、汽車、電力設備及醫藥生物等行業;二是政策邊際改善的安全主線,主要包括電子、計算機、國防軍工等行業。
中期關注醫藥和消費板塊。1)從三季報來看,下遊板塊業績改善明顯,未來隨着疫情擾動和地產壓力等因素的逐步緩解,消費有望進一步復甦,消費板塊有望迎來拐點。在具體的配置方向上,我們建議關注食品飲料、家電、零售、社會服務等行業;2)近期醫藥板塊國內利好政策頻現,此外,偏股型基金對於醫藥生物的配置比例目前處於歷史低位,醫藥板塊的戰略性機會值得關注。
港股觀點:市場有望繼續上漲,關注互聯網與消費
港股當前拐點已至,未來若得到經濟數據的驗證港股市場有望繼續上漲。向後看,隨着我國防疫政策的進一步優化以及地產利好政策帶動地產行業逐步修復,我國經濟有望進一步企穩回升,11、12月的經濟數據或將底部回升。
港股配置方向上建議關注:1)受益於防疫政策優化的$食品股(BK1227.HK)$、$旅遊及觀光(BK1034.HK)$及$博彩股(BK1114.HK)$。2)受益於經濟穩健修復同時估值處於低位的醫藥行業($生物技術(BK1050.HK)$、$醫療保健(BK1116.HK)$、$抗疫概念(BK1188.HK)$)及互聯網行業($電子商貿及互聯網服務(BK1058.HK)$)。
風險提示:經濟增長大幅不及預期;新冠疫情擾動;發生超預期風險事件。
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