《大行報告》美銀證券:內地保險市場前景改變 偏好友邦(01299.HK)及太保(02601.HK)
美銀證券發表報告指,內地保險業未來增長前景改變,重點將從之前的「高利潤產品和中產階級客戶」轉變為「低利潤產品和大眾市場」。對保險公司的主要發展影響主要體現在長期經濟增長放緩,並伴隨著實質性的市場結構變化,如人口結構變化和分銷系統變化;居民收入增長更加平衡,可能導致大眾市場的擴大;更多的基本產品和服務將被鼓勵以可承受的價格提供給大眾市場,由於中產階級也可以購買類似的產品和服務,高利潤產品的銷售可能更具挑戰性。
該行指,優先選擇友邦(01299.HK)及太保(02601.HK),前者是保險公司中最平衡和最具韌性,東盟保險市場的較快復甦令友邦與內地同行相比顯得獨特。此外,友邦是中國內地和香港之間潛在通關的主要受惠者,對該股擔憂是相對於同行的高估值等。
另邊廂,如果A股和相關股票表現出色,該行預計太保股價將會跑贏大市。隨著過去兩年新業務價值的下降,由於基數低,明年可能是太保的增長年;另太保經銷團隊改革或提振銷售。該行予友邦及太保目標價分別91元及27.7元,評級均為「買入」。
該行另稱,對中國財險(02328.HK)維持「中性」評級,因為擔心明年利潤增長緩慢。如果股市反彈,料其表現不可能跑贏。但如果股市繼續疲軟,財險業務性質則具有防守性。予目標價8.4元。
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