看漲中國市場！ 美銀髮布2023年十大首選交易
智通財經APP獲悉，據美銀策略師Michael Hartnett稱，預期美國明年聯邦基金利率將達到5.25%的峯值，美聯儲或將在12月降息。該策略師在報告中寫道，「2023年美股或將橫盤整理，預計標普500指數將於明年年底收於4000點。我們在上半年將繼續看跌風險資產，下半年或對市場轉爲看漲。」
Hartnett稱：「因美國經濟硬着陸和信用事件風險仍被低估，我們在上半年將看漲美國政府債券，將標準普爾指數的最佳切入點維持在3600、3300以及3000點。
以下是美銀2023年首選的十大交易：
1、做多美國30年期國債，美銀稱，「預計經濟衰退、失業、等因素影響，美聯儲在23年底降低加息步伐，歷史來看美國國債回報率從未出現連續3年下降的情況。」
2、收益率曲線變陡，美銀稱，「隨着經濟衰退開始，美國收益率曲線趨於波動，市場預計未來美聯儲將從鷹派加息轉向降息。」
3、做空美元，做多新興市場資產，做多新興市場不良債券，韓元，及墨西哥比索。
4、做多中國股票市場ETF，美銀稱，「中國股市有很高的‘過剩儲蓄’,仍處於爲逆勢看漲階段。」
5、看漲黃金、銅，美銀稱，「由於美元見頂、金屬庫存短缺、能源轉型加速、看好金屬市場以對衝未來通脹」。
6、做多科技股債券(>5%的收益率+強勁的資產負債表)和亞洲的不良高收益債券(17%的收益率)。」
7、做多全球工業股和小型股ETF。
8、看空美國高科技指數ETF。美銀稱，「由於量化寬鬆全球化時代不再，加上峯值滲透和監管風險上升。」
9、看空私募股權ETF，美銀稱，「銀行面臨住房和信貸風險，存在贖回風險」。
10、做多歐盟銀行，做空加拿大、澳大利亞、新西蘭和瑞典銀行。美銀稱，「預期歐盟財政刺激措施將使歐元區擺脫對俄羅斯能源供應、美國軍事的依賴，未來加拿大/澳大利亞/新西蘭/瑞典房地產市場將進入蕭條階段。」
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