《大行報告》瑞銀予恆指明年底目標22,100點 首選友邦(01299.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)等八股
瑞銀發表研究報告指出,MSCI香港今年至今累跌18%,表現欠佳。展望明年,在全球通脹放緩、債券孳息率和美元走低,以及美國自第三季起減息的情況下,相信MSCI香港指數可獲重評。與亞太區及內地情況一致,預期在防疫措施放寬及低基數效應下,本港明年盈利前景應較2022年正面,意味著明年將有更好的回報。惟在此之前,市場對全球衰退的憂慮應會主導市場,並為明年開局帶來挑戰。
該行將明年底MSCI香港指數目標定為10,300點,意味著較目前水平有約一成的上升空間。以MSCI香港和MSCI中國預期回報的加權平均值來計算,予恆指明年底目標22,100點。
此外,瑞銀首選友邦(01299.HK)、金沙(01928.HK)、新秀麗(01910.HK)、長和(00001.HK)、香港電訊(06823.HK)、長建(01038.HK)、新地(00016.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)共八隻股份(目標價及評級見另表)。當中,看好友邦、金沙及新秀麗作為重新開放的受惠者。另看好長和、香港電訊及長建具防禦性和高股息率。而港交所則會成為互聯互通擴張下的主要受惠者。
長遠而言,該行預期北部都會區將成為未來廿年最大的項目之一,並為私營部門創造投資機會,而在北部都會區範圍內有大量土儲及資產組合的公司如新地,或將受惠於區內更好的基建連接、就業機會增加(特別是創科領域)、住屋需求更高,以及房屋開發加速。
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