Fundstrat創始人:美股將強勁上漲
美國市場研究公司Fundstrat Managing Partner的創始人Tom Lee週三表示,週二美股出現了一個極爲罕見的反向信號,預示着美股將大幅上漲。他表示,看跌看漲比率(Put to Call ratio)週二飆升至1.0上方,同一天標普500指數也漲超1%。這一信號令人費解,因爲看跌看漲比率通常在股市下跌、而非股市強勁上漲時飆升。
看跌看漲比率是一項技術指標,有助於衡量投資者情緒。看跌看漲比率爲1時,表明市場處於中性時期;而當看跌看漲比率變的異常高時,意味着有大量的看跌期權被買入,這表明市場很可能正在探底,投資者可能會據此考慮做多股市。
Tom Lee指出,看跌看漲比率在週二由0.64躍升至1.35,與此同時,標普500指數大漲近1.4%。數據顯示,自1997年以來,看跌看漲比率在標普500指數漲幅超過1%的同一天飆升至1以上的情況只有三次。Tom Lee表示,這三次情況下“股票的遠期回報非常好”。他指出,這三次情況分別發生在1997年2月、2008年11月和2020年3月,而在這些時間接下來的幾個月和一年裏,股市都出現了大幅上漲。
Tom Lee表示,在上述三次情況發生之後,標普500指數在之後3個月、6個月和12個月的平均遠期回報率分別爲3.7%、17.5%和35.8%,之後6個月和12個月獲得正向遠期回報率的機率爲100%。因此,這一反向信號加上年底強勁的季節性因素讓Tom Lee相信標普500指數到年底可能飆升至4500點,較當前水平上漲約12%。
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