惠譽博華:基建投資與地產政策寬鬆將推動水泥需求溫和增長
惠譽博華工商企業部副總監唐大千表示,疫情侵蝕境內消費能力與意願、全球主要經濟體緊縮政策抑制需求進而拖累中國出口增速,基建將成為中國政府保持經濟增長在合理區間的重要工具。中國政府將權衡經濟動能與政府債務之間的重要性,如果著力刺激消費覆蘇取得成果,基建將呈現相對平緩增速。
報告指,政策合理寬鬆將提振地產用鋼需求預期,預測明年中國螺紋鋼價格將在每噸3,500至4,000元人民幣區間波動。
另外,惠譽博華指, 基建投資與地產政策合理寬鬆將推動水泥需求溫和增長。而煤價高企推升水泥生產成本,持續擠壓行業利潤空間,水泥企業通過產業鏈延伸尋求新的業績增長點,降耗減碳目標將推動生產線持續升級。
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